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norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 02:08pm 23 Jan 2014
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I should check my outputs from the solarex. My first purchased BP panel( probably 20 years ago) looks like a mono with the gaps and its colouring. Always wondered about that, must investigate.
Yes Anteror, OZ should be using our sun but that would mean massive upgrading of the grid, away from our population centres, OZ population is very centralised. Would require more then lip service to AE. It will come in time, of that I am positive although I accept it can not be accomplished by this generation nor probably the next, perhaps by insisting what should be so will only slow it down. You are showing what should be so and that will influence those near you to think, you are a pioneer as a lot of us are here on the 4M.
Here in Oz back awhile we had many wind mills pumping water and producing power, then diesel generators. The grid replaced that with convenience and cheap reliable power. Solars days are coming, it must be proven commercially viable. Old Oz Saying- "We are always bitching about the weather but can do nothing about it" We come from the land downunder.
Vic
yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166
Posted: 01:10pm 25 Jan 2014
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I just cranked up an old spreadsheet and plugged some current numbers in for a household I done a bit of work for, there are still some savings if power is not unduly wasted.
started with 40Kw/day @ $0.356 (averaged power price on standard 2 yr residential contract now)
grid costs $15.09/day or $5821.60/yr
added 5Kw solar panels (feed payments are 7.6 cents, power saved 35.6 cents)
grid costs $7.26/day or $2650/yr
saved 18Kw/day in energy efficiency plus moved some night time use to the afternoon.
grid costs $2.25/day or $823/yr
Costing all the things we done at retail price and 6% interest the payback time for the full enchilada was 6 years. Providing prices stay as they are of course. Then after the payoff period this household is looking at savings of $5000/yr over their original power use.
I would regard that as a good return on investment.
Only downside is the time it took to work out the power shifting/saving stuff (that was quite difficult, it took 2 years) but that will be faster next time.
I dont think solar panels are quite dead yet! I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not...
Madness Guru Joined: 08/10/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2498
Posted: 01:57pm 25 Jan 2014
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I am with click and pay $00.2997 per KWH and get $00.18 back for solar back to the grid. Also no contract period, the 00.18 is 00.08 + 00.10 from click.There are only 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary, and those who don't.
norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 02:01pm 25 Jan 2014
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Power is relatively expensive down your way. residential tariff here is 26.73/Kwhr and Tariff Economy (HW) 18.052/Kwhr. I am sensing the utilities are "happy" to have residential solar but balking at larger then 30Kw commercial. I also sense that is to do with infrastructure run down, our grid up this way is becoming very aged, timber poles are not being replaced they are having a metal "sleeve" placed around base of poles to extend life. A very short time cost effective way to extend life I surmise. Maintenance crew personnel are being continually cut, it all seems very short turn economics.
No doubt if residences can afford the initial outlay they are well ahead especially at your tariff rates. Shame our local utilities will not allow us to export power to customers down your way, to get 20c plus/Kwhr would put commercial solar in sunny parts of OZ very much good business. Guess line loses and logistics would influence that a lot.
Down the track with degrading of solar panel output the economics of existing residential solar may change.
Yahoo2 are you experiencing much degrading of panel output with time? I agree solar is not dead and believe it will grow if the will is there.We come from the land downunder.
Vic
yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166
Posted: 05:17pm 25 Jan 2014
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I see very little degrading, the odd bank with hazing on the encapsulation material and a few with faulty soldering but I think that is entirely sub-standard EVA (ethylene vinyl acetate).
it is kind of hard to put a number on it for the really old panels but I see a lot of 75 and 80 watt panels that were installed in the early nineties with almost "as installed" specs.
some of the good chinese ones colour a bit but dont drop more than 5%, and they were well above spec when they were installed so they are still less than 2% down after 12-15 years.
I have had a couple of banks replaced under warranty (both german) both with blistering or cracking EVA and a water stain.
I cant comment on the 190 watt grid connect panels that are everywhere, I dont get to stick my meters on any of them. I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not...
norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 05:44pm 25 Jan 2014
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Yes I had my whole system 18x123watt Sharp panels replaced under warranty at about 2 years. They showed bad discolouration and were down on output. Sharp replaced them completely free, no freight and no installation charges. There fault was picked up by the installer on a routine inspection. Fault was very obvious visually, is a concern however when manufacturers are disappearing regularly.We come from the land downunder.
Vic
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 07:41pm 25 Jan 2014
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Hi Vic
I had a look at my panels today and they are fogging to some degree and the power output is just under 3 amps at full sun at lunchtime, the panels are rated at 5 amps so well under, the 1.5 KW rated system is delivering 805 watts at peak.
All in all it is beneficial but has dropped off at least 30% from when it was installed,when new my daily usage was below 10 KW day now it is nearly 15KW in 5 years it as generated 5000+ KW according to the meter and some of that is credit 99 KW @ 50 cents KW Total usage 1374 KW @ 26.73, plus GST $35.09 Plus a new access charge $46.00 and a note that there will be an increase of approx $259.00 per annum for renewable energy target. This taken from a bill received on Friday.
I rang up the panel suppliers re warranty but no longer in business.
As I said before I think a solar farm is a good thing but not at the present yield offered. Fish farming has a far better return if you have the water, Holiday cabins if you can stand the people, or share trading if your nerves are good.
All the best
BobbFoolin Around
norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 08:09pm 25 Jan 2014
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Yeah Bob that output drop is a worry and a concern to me with project. Share markets out for our age I had my run from 86 to 2005, if I was a young fellow that's the way I`d go, but to make my land an earner with solar I`m committed to give it a good go.
A 100Kw system I`d go for on my own, figures I have show it would return bank interest but without a return on capital in 10 years. Haven`t the water and prefer animals to humans. Have generated a bit of interest, one in particular commercial fellow who is looking to cut his power bills but hasn`t the room for a large solar system. Feel he`d go for it for sure if he were paying the tariff our southern cousins are.
But the last thing we need in this farming community is a massive power cost rise. Most have 100 hp plus pumps irrigating, running for 20 hours plus per week. So you can imagine their power bills thus my voicing my concern over time at the continual power price rises and the effect is going to have on farm produce purchasers ie. everyone who eats.
We come from the land downunder.
Vic
MOBI Guru Joined: 02/12/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 819
Posted: 08:52pm 25 Jan 2014
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Are you only considering photo voltaic, or is thermal (e.g molten salt) an option?
Mind you, I think thermal solar would be somewhat more complex but at least you don't have the de-rating over time as with PV. There wouldn't be a problem with manufacturers going out of business either - mirrors are fairly easily made?
David M.
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 09:41pm 25 Jan 2014
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Hi David
Solar heat does have a better chance than PV from my point of view as I have experimented with it in the past and found it to be better in that you have a heat storage which covers most of the base load concerns, however it is not a plug and play like a PV system as a lot of engineering is required and no off the shelf components to source, also at the 100 KW level it becomes a real management project, with large quantities of hot oil and steam plant to manage as well as the electrical side of grid tie legal issues.
The one I built in the past could deliver 5KW 24/7 and was aimed at the isolated property situation but at the low cost of farm distillate at the time around 5 cents liter it couldn't compete against gen sets. Then the rural SWER grid was initiated and that was it, good Idea gone.
All the best
BobFoolin Around
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 09:49pm 25 Jan 2014
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Hi Vic
Now you are on the track as a community project is the way to go and as power prices increase as I am sure they will in the not to distant future the percentage return fades into the background because to more the power costs the greater the benefit without being tied to a skinflint feed in price.
Just remember that if you are paying for it yourself that your return will no be better than Fixed deposit, without the hassles associated with compliance and maintenance.
All the best
BobFoolin Around
norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 10:54pm 25 Jan 2014
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Whilst I`ll stand in defence of our farmers, my life time with them has me a little hesitant of such community projects. unfortunately you`ve hit the nail on the head with the compliance not so much the maintenance and not just compliance with the buerocrazies.
I am sort of going with the flow but I have the plug, so to speak. Farmers collectively can be their own worst opponents, but that is their individuality. You have only to look at their coops to see that. Hopefully I have the one big enough to go it alone, rather then deal with a number all pulling in separate directions.We come from the land downunder.
Vic
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 12:08am 26 Jan 2014
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Hi Vic
I know what you mean as I tried to get a beef marketing co op going 15 years age and the tend to be their own worst enemy when it comes to cooperating for the common good.
Best of luck mate and I am sure you will plan to succeed and use your management skills to to that, as I said earlier I would have a go if I was younger but now it is an effort just to get a home unit going.
All the best
BobFoolin Around
anteror Senior Member Joined: 06/10/2009 Location: FinlandPosts: 189
Posted: 03:25pm 27 Jan 2014
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Best of luck we REALLY , need indeed !
AS we.. know the human nature.
Also we all know, that EVERY !! day there is coming enough energy to
area about 100 X 100 km sufficient to whole human kind needs, for whole year.
Sun is is giving us energy for free and also all our food etc
SO all this, that you are talking and writing here, is just bullsh*t !
IT IS just !, where we ALL want to put our efforts and money etc
Now we put our money and effort to weapons.
WE could solve ALL THIS IN JUST one year to all of us, if we all
"so called" humans.. want that !!
So it is just bullsh*t.
FREE wind and solar power is of course a big threat to many.
But as we ALL know the impossibilities.. and this impossibility is
beginning to be the most impossible mission (1.2-2.6 and 3.1-9.48, 9.99-999) and beginning to be nearly impossible to any energy company, to solve without taking into account connecting people and their needs and their own wind and solar production.
So All the imbalance in this, is corrected and quite naturally
ways in all this, in no time at all.
IF they do not DO so, they will left alone and all the solutions will
be made locally and with "OFF grid" etc
There is really very little time for energy companies to do decisions
about this.
IN or OUT !
Antero
Edited by anteror 2014-01-29
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 07:12pm 27 Jan 2014
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Hi Antero
I am not sure that I understand your post and I think some of the reason is lost in translation.
It is true that there is more than enough energy for the world from sunlight but the point here is us as small business people taking a slice of the energy cake to live on ourselves while helping the environment in a small way.
By doing so we are treading on the turf of big business and government and if such a venture was successful and multiply around the country and maybe the world they would find themselves threatened. The proof of the concept with a increase in efficiency of the grid due to less transmission losses would upset their pricing concept, and in the long term their profit margin.
As you say if the governments where to spend their defense budgets for the good of mankind instead of destruction that would finance innovation and solve a lot of the financial problems the world faces, unfortunately the social problems would remain and negate to some degree the benefits so to expect this to happen is living in a dream.
The solar farm we are discussing is just a personal or joint venture at a personal level to provide income and benefit to the investors and in real terms the benefit to the world problem of pollution is infinitesimal.
Unfortunately most people do not have the capacity either financially or intellectually to go off the grid, and as more people ore living in rental properties or government housing, or worse still apartment blocks in major cities the opportunity to do their own thing is not a there.
All the best
BobFoolin Around
MOBI Guru Joined: 02/12/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 819
Posted: 07:40pm 27 Jan 2014
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Hi Bob,
I echo your sentiments. In the great scheme of things, we are really p...in in the wind.
If such a solar power venture did get off the ground it is going to be constrained by the same problems that grid tie units do and that is they only produce power for a relatively small window per day which (as also with big wind turbines), greatly affects the stability of the grid.
Which brings us back to storage. In the name of efficiency, all power produced during the production window would necessarily go into the grid, leaving nothing to go into store. As the capacity factor (actual power produced with respect to rated maximum output) is around 25%, a 100KW system would need 400KW worth of panels?
Just my musings.
David M.
VK4AYQ Guru Joined: 02/12/2009 Location: AustraliaPosts: 2539
Posted: 08:03pm 27 Jan 2014
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Hi David
All sorts of problems to make it all work efficiently and the biggest is storage, that is why I recon a huge set of NIFE cells custom made to store excess energy and a controller to augment the base load as required, with the control smarts available now I an sure a remote demand switching system could be incorporated without to much drama or expense.
As you say six to eight hours a day collection time is realistic requiring a lot of extra panels to meet the 100 KW mark. More costs and support equipment. Of course there is no point in generating power in the off peak times, so it would mean a eight hour window for the 100 KW power generation giving giving around 2500 hours per annum
The huge wind turbines have a bigger problem with output control and storage, a lot more smaller units managed on a personal basis would solve most problems along with the VLF problems created by big units. Is it really worth the trouble? That is million dollar question.
All the best
BobFoolin Around
MOBI Guru Joined: 02/12/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 819
Posted: 09:09pm 27 Jan 2014
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Yair but? If all the power produced went into the grid during the daylight hours as I think it would, where is the "excess" power going to come form?
Unless there is some agreement that the power to the grid during sunlight hours would be decreased such that we have relatively constant power to the grid 24/7 which would be highly desirable. That means we would need a solar array two times bigger than the already 4 times bigger...?
Aaahhh, the impracticalities of reality?
By building in storage, are we building in uneconomic inefficiencies?
A lot to consider methinks. (I'm not being picky, just doing a bit of wondering).
David M.
yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166
Posted: 10:20pm 27 Jan 2014
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That is where you and I differ in opinion David,
I believe the power industry has spent years shifting power use to match the coal power stations need for round the clock customers.
If a greenpower company offered an afternoon J tariff at a reduced price on a smart meter, I think the power use could be more tailored to solar production fairly swiftly.
I hear what you are saying, but then I see councils installing solar street lights at $7000- $18000 per shot and I know that indirectly you and I will be paying for the replacement batteries in those little babies. Isn't that just the same thing as RE storage via the back door? I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not...
norcold Guru Joined: 06/02/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 670
Posted: 10:47pm 27 Jan 2014
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Storage would be lovely. But we aren`t there yet. Todays solar farms have customers who need power of a daytime, thus I seek those customers and irrigators are such customers. My hurdle there is while I believe a solar farm will do so, convincing the irrigators is another matter. To them solar is viewed as a "toy"(for want of a better word) , to convince them otherwise without a working example is a major.
When household solar in Qld was offered 44cents/Kwhr plus the RECs, only 3 farmers in my area took it up, although the figures showed it was a great investment. Not one commercial system was built under that scheme(8cents/Kwhr + RECs to 30Kw), yet the cost of power to irrigate is a major. There are 6 packing sheds in my area each costing around a million each,(all family farms) not one panel on their roofs, but the power bills to run those packing sheds is enormous. It is not lack of capital, it is a lack of understanding of the potential of something that is new and unproven.
But I know if one large system is built and proves itself, they will take off like wildfire, I see down the track because the majority of use of power is of a daytime many irrigators and packing sheds having their own solar farms if the power utilities allow it.
That is the barbed wire fence I walk, tis a challenge I`m enjoying. Keeps the grey matter working, although methinks there`s two brain cells, ones lost and the others looking for it. We come from the land downunder.
Vic
Notice. New forum software under development. It's going to miss a few functions and look a bit ugly for a while, but I'm working on it full time now as the old forum was too unstable. Couple days, all good. If you notice any issues, please contact me.
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, need indeed !
day there is coming enough energy to
