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Forum Index : EV's : UK to ban petrol and diesel
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| isochronic Guru  Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
The times they are a changing... petrol ban I hope Detroit can reinvent itself.. can't see Tyrannosaurus Rump achieving much though. |
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| Boppa Guru Joined: 08/11/2016 Location: AustraliaPosts: 814 |
I cant see it happening unless they get fusion reactors finally working at commercial output levels as the electricity consumption would skyrocket (x100's at a minimum) Renewables are good, but simply not large enough and level enough to do that, and using coal/gas only moves the emissions elsewhere, fission on that scale is a political nono, and hyrdro- there isnt enough viable sites and the greens hate dams anyway plus battery tech isnt there yet (getting better but a long way to go) and the best batterys atm use quite rare elements, which will drive prices up further I still believe the future will be biofuels (just not bloomin corn-WTF did they ever think that was going to work out well??) and in diesels to boot- the new gen diesels are very clean indeed, in some places the exhaust coming out is actually cleaner than the air its being emitted into! Table of best plants to make biofuels from- Wikipedia note that the preferred plant by a certain government (corn) makes only 145 kg per hectare per year, even rice gives seven times more fuel than corn does at 696kg/hectare/year- while Millettia pinnata (which grows in Qld already) gives a massive 9000kg/hectare/year, and some algae can get a huge 80 tonnes per hectare per year!!!! This insistence on using corn is one of the major reasons so many studies show biofuels to be uneconomical or the often quoted 'they need more dino diesel to grow the biodiesel than they actually get' Of course it is if you start by using the absolute WORST crop- bar none- as your starting point..... |
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Grogster Admin Group  Joined: 31/12/2012 Location: New ZealandPosts: 9303 |
Well, that is a proposed ban on the SALE of new petrol and diesel vehicles, but the millions of existing vehicles will still run on liquid fuels. They are not suggesting a blanket ban on engines and on liquid fuel as the thread title suggests  , just the sale of new cars with liquid fuel engines come 2040.I kinda like the idea though, being a supporter of electric vehicles.  2040 is still 23 years away, and with any luck, the battery technology will be really good in a couple of decades, and make electric vehicles more attractive. Even here in NZ, we are seeing all-electric cars and other vehicles starting to take a hold and gain an interest. As Boppa says though, it really is all in the battery technology, and at the moment they can't compete with two minutes at the pump for 500km of travel distance vs 20-30 minutes minimum at a charging station, but given a couple of decades of battery development... Smoke makes things work. When the smoke gets out, it stops! |
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Gizmo Admin Group Joined: 05/06/2004 Location: AustraliaPosts: 5078 |
Yeah I agree, its a good idea. Lots of time for manufacturers to get their act together, petrol stations and their employees to plan for their future, etc. I could never imagine such a bold move been even suggested here in Australia. Crude oil is such a useful resource, its in just about everything we own and use. Plastics, paint, lubrication, cosmetics, medicines, electronics, etc all use oil byproducts. For heavy transport, like ocean freight, trucks, farm machinery, oil cant be beaten, but it does seam a waste of a valuable resource using it to pick up the kids from school. Glenn The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, the second best time is right now. JAQ |
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| Boppa Guru Joined: 08/11/2016 Location: AustraliaPosts: 814 |
I certainly have nothing against elec cars, in fact once I move one of my projects is basically making a clone of Trevs hilux (he still has the casting to make the engine adapter ) except mine by necessity will be based on a 4x4 hilux (simply because that is what I own lol)One of the limiting factors of course is the fact that it is limited to around 200km with its current batterys, which is way over my needs for 90% of the time, with only occasional trips to the coast to see family etc I had thought of either using my truck each time (awkward to park it tho as cant fit on relies properties and not legal to park in the street overnight  ) or the other option I was considering was buying a 12kw genny pack and fitting it on the trips to the coastsomething like this 12kw diesel genny It could be used on the property as required, and (just) fits on the tray lengthwise, is under half of the max payload of the ute and gets almost 5 times the fuel efficiency of the stock motor to boot (100l gives 50hr @ 1/2 capacity- 50 hrs @ 100kmh is 5000km per 100l of diesel- stock diesel 2.9l is 10l/100km ie 100l/1000km Use it to keep the batterys charged whilst driving, basically making it a diesel electric on long trips When not needed take it off and leave the extra weight at home (I was thinking of making a drop off base, like the bottom of a drop on/off camper bed- with the genny in the middle and luggage lockers/ie large toolboxes either side, similar to whats fitted to many mine utes- wind down the legs and leave it to go back to pure elec recharged by solar at the farm) something like this with the dropon body loaded on (genny in the middle between the boxes and would go right to the back tailgate)  and standard tray when running pure elec |
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yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
They wont need to come good on their promise. The horse will have well and truly bolted before then. My prediction is that in Europe by 2025, if you say you are thinking about buying a fossil fuel vehicle, people are going to look at you like you are weird. why would you BUY a personal car? An EV is good for a 700,000 to 1 million kms lifetime. It is built for ride sharing and it will be as cheap as public transport or less. Right now fuel for an EV is a third of the price (if we buy at peak prices) or a seventh if we shop around. maintenance is 20% of a petrol equivalent or less. The day is fast approaching where a used fossil fuel vehicle will be worth scrap value only. So I could be given a free petrol car and the running costs will be more than the EV transport alternatives. I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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oztules Guru Joined: 26/07/2007 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1686 |
While electric cars are a novelty, they are of no relevance to the grid.... but if everyone has one, things will need to be very very very different. If we look at a tesla, and appreciate it will need 90kwh to charge up... we can start to see that this makes average household power consumption look very very poor. We can barely keep the candles burning now as we close down more power stations... what happens when we need to produce lots more. Average household use is currently 16kwh across the country per day. Assuming everyone does not have a tesla, but an ordinary unit, then we are looking at the 20-30wkh size ( prius doesn't count ... its barely an electric with only a few mins of all electric power to use... and 4kwh of battery.) If we were to use a battery fill up most days days... we may add as much as an extra 20kwh-30kwh per day to the average personal usage.... and there are millions more cars and trucks than houses. This is starting to look a bit scary for our rickety old poles and wires when you think of the loads they will need to carry... and how we are going to produce it. We are looking at at least 3 times the usage than we currently handle.... all the pole transformers will need upgrading too. We will all be trying to charge cars at night.... with no solar to even help out a bit. If we charge at work..... well there is a good $5000/year we will need to pay the employer for...... so he may allow charging as part of the pay package... or maybe not. At least the sun may be out then. It will be interesting how it all pans out.... It will work somehow, it always does, but it may not look anything like we expect. ..........oztules Village idiot...or... just another hack out of his depth |
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| Boppa Guru Joined: 08/11/2016 Location: AustraliaPosts: 814 |
We were talking about this on another forum I hang at, and the need for a massive amount of new electrical generation plants- and exactly how it would be achievable IF they ever get fusion going, then it would be doable, but otherwise, you would simply be shifting the pollution from one place to another, rather than decreasing it.. Fission is a political nogo (altho the only real current usable), hydro pretty much the same, solar and wind really arent up to it in most areas, geo is restricted to a few places... and building more coal and gas plants is exactly opposite to what we need to be doing.... |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
That is a good point, it is often overlooked that a large part of energy transmission to consumers is via the liquid fuels used for transport. And the infrastructure used is a massive impediment to change, as it sees EV's as a threat to jobs etc. I see lithium as the answer, probably as exchangeable standardised batteries, using an automatic exchange mechanism for vehicles. A bandolier-of-cartridges arrangement could load in a few hundred cells in a few minutes. Given that a lot of cells now have an inbuilt processor to check charge/discharge, it should be straightforward to interface a prearranged set of cells to connect and report charge level, health, history and id for guarantees etc. A "battery bit-coin" kind of !! Large vehicles could use a pallet pack easily enough. Either way, the transport industry has to move beyond using the atmosphere as a rubbish dump. |
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| Gizmo Admin Group Joined: 05/06/2004 Location: AustraliaPosts: 5078 |
If we were to look at two options.... 1. We continue to use petrol/diesel. 2. We drive electric, and build efficient coal power stations to supply the energy. I wonder which would actually be better? We have lots of coal, but not so much oil, and oil is needed for other things, so option 2 would be better in that regard. From an environmental point of view, which option would generate less nasty gas ( CO2, CO, etc. ) for km of travel? Glenn The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, the second best time is right now. JAQ |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
I see large solar farms in rural areas (where space is cheap), charging batteries, with the batteries being transported much like the petrol tankers etc used today. Extending the grid to distribute the energy used for transport is not likely to happen in the short term. Given the greed involved in the oil industry, I doubt it will happen soon...probably just more stuffing about, accidents, apologies etc. Lets see... a pipe 26 inches in diameter...discharging boiling hot crude oil from 4980 pounds a square inch .. for a month or so...into fishing grounds. Memories are short. |
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| yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
Both the Hyundai ionic and the Tesla Model 3 are 6.5-7 kilometers per Kwh. Just the electricity used to fractionate fuel at the refineries at 1.7 kwh per litre would cover an entire fleet of EV's. Most of the larger solar systems I visit are producing 20-30 kwh more than they need per day. That's 160km a day in an EV or 60,000km/yr. There is cheap available capacity everywhere. I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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| yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
The exciting one for me will be the trucks. I cant wait to see the release of the Tesla Semi. My bet is that they will do a 400volt/800volt system with two 100kwh packs bolted together as a removable 200kwh module that drives motors in pairs. Up to four 200kwh modules could be used individually or together on the fly. So you just punch into the GPS where you want to stop and swap out some batteries and the truck will drain the modules to be changed out and top up the ones kept in the truck. I am hoping they will also eventually lose the air system on the prime mover and go to electric drive high voltage wedge brakes. I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
Thats an eye opener ! Had no idea Tesla was developing trucks. Release in September too. Wonder what the diesel tank fill price is on a semi ? My (former) car had a 65 litre petrol tank, and that would be nudging $100. (My ideal car would be a Tesla, with a LPG gas turbine auxiliary generator builtin..might have a few issues there though  ) |
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| Boppa Guru Joined: 08/11/2016 Location: AustraliaPosts: 814 |
My family has been in the trucking game for decades lol My brother had a Kenworth B double, that has 4 500l tanks, that (barely) get it from Brisbane to Melbourne and back again, plus 2 freezer packs that had another 150 litres each, and the cabin pack had its own tank that was a baby at I think 25l so at $1.30 a litre, thats 2325l= $3022.50 per trip plus the tyres (34 at $800 each) owning trucks aint cheap |
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| yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
And there is the rub, 2700kwh of electricity for the same trip costs industry between $450 and $700. There is a good margin in there for battery pack rental. We are supposed to have 4 rest breaks in 12 hours of driving, so on the major routes a truck will always be within 200-300kms of a fresh battery. They have got Jerome Guillen working on the Tesla semi, he is no hack, having already designed the biggest selling prime mover in the states for freightliner. I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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| oztules Guru Joined: 26/07/2007 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1686 |
That seems wrong Yahoo, there is 11kwh of energy in a liter of diesel, and the big engines can be up in the 30-35% range, so output about 3-3.5kwh/ltr. If we substitute the electrics for the diesel, we need to use about 7-8000kwh of energy for the same quantity of diesel turned into mechanical energy, before we start to derate the electrical engine for losses from the 8mwh.. so we may need for say 80-% efficiency, more like 10mwh of electrical energy to achieve the same thing. It is still not cut and dried........ At normal use, thats still $2500 dollars just for electricity, with 100% battery conversion... .....probably need a bit more than that with the chemistry losses... if lead acid, then maybe 10-20% again..... It won't be as easy as it's made out to even break even... never mind the capitol equipment involved. The only saving grace is if they can make them driver-less, and operate them at half the speed for twice the time.... then the energy savings will be huge. At half the speed we have 1/8th the wind losses, and this will make a very worthwhile difference. ..........oztules Village idiot...or... just another hack out of his depth |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
There are other factors - sometimes the diesel burns for no effect. Things like braking regeneration, stop-idle-start conditions in the city fringes, etc, would be significant I think. I guess the Brisbane-Melbourne return trip is about 3300 km ? ie 1.6 km/litre ? |
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| yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
I drove a class 8 truck with the fancy new motor for a six weeks last year and I averaged two km per litre. Diesel is 8.9 kwh per litre. I have done a lot of like for like comparisons with EV's and the equivalent petroleum vehicle and the ratio seems to always come out the same, it is uncanny. Including all the charging losses it is always better than 4.5 to 1. I am working on a fraction under 1 kwh per kilometer average consumption and 2000 km per kwh for a battery lifetime cost for an EV semi trailer. It hardly matters, we will know one way or another in 6 months, it will be very interesting. Regarding the petroleum vehicle ban in 2040, I did mischievously suggest a workaround to someone last week. My idea is that the exhaust of the vehicle could be routed into the cabin so the driver gets to sample the pollution firsthand. Seems a fair compromise.  I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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| oztules Guru Joined: 26/07/2007 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1686 |
fix soon Village idiot...or... just another hack out of his depth |
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