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Forum Index : Solar : Renewables have just got interesting
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yahoo2 Guru  Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
so here is the rub. the 4 largest coal companies in the USA were worth $34 Billion in 2011, they are now worth $150 million. A coal fired power station has closed every two weeks for the last 5 years in the US. India has cut its coal imports by 15% every year for the last 3 years. There are some eyewateringly horrendous financial numbers in the gas industry. Elon Musk/ Tesla have taken $18 billion in pre-orders for the Tesla Model 3 in less than a week. A couple of states in Germany are now at 300% of the renewable energy capacity they need to operate. How is this possible when fossil fuel is so much cheaper per Kwh than wind or solar? The answer is that revenue raised from the retail sale of electricity is only a small part of a much bigger picture. The WA govt is the first big player in Australia to blink and face up to what it is really costing to supply electricity. WA takes lead and tells utility to close down fossil fuel generation The bottom line is that the revenue falls short of covering the ACTUAL costs by more than $500 million every year. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg, we have probably dodged a financial bullet with demise of the car manufacturing industry and projects like the Carmichael coal mine were actually dead in the water more than 12 months ago, despite the protests of many interested parties. It is only a matter of weeks before the same sorts of financial realities that WA are facing, start to be asked about in the eastern states. The shift in public awareness of the need for appropriate low energy solutions rather than replacing like for like and just continuing on as before has really shocked me, its not widespread but it is there. It gives me some small glimmer of hope that the renewable energy industry might be dragged kicking and screaming away from those tasty govt incentives and onto a more sustainable path before it repeats the financial collapse we are witnessing now. I am officially in glass half full mode for 2016    I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
I see Peabody ( large US coal company ) has just filed for bankruptcy protection. AFAIK large sections of the british and russian economies, and therefore europe also, now depend on higher oil prices. An intrinsically unstable situation, and getting worse. So much for the fiscobabble of "the invisible hand" working toward peace. |
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Gizmo Admin Group  Joined: 05/06/2004 Location: AustraliaPosts: 5078 |
Yeah I think the world is making the move to clean renewables, despite the politicians and old school businesses attempts to keep us using coal. People are making the move. The renewable technologies have been available for decades, but the last few years have seen a big push by industry leaders like Musk to bring the price down to a point where its a viable alternative to the grid fed fossil fuel power we have grown up with. For a new home builder, its now makes good economic sense to incorporate a battery bank and solar panels into your new homes construction cost. Long term you save money, and have a more reliable energy supply. For housing units and other tennants in common situations, the figures are even better. But government is driven by votes and donations. And many politicians are not much more than overpaid used car salesmen. They look the for deal that keeps them in office and will say what many people want to hear, not what people need to hear. Coal = jobs, lots of them. And that equals votes. The long term future is not a consideration for many who work in the coal industry and have a mortgage to pay for a overpriced house in a mining town. The politician want to keep the coal flowing, as do the big companies who profit from it. Even though any economist would say investing in coal is a bad idea, the Adani mine is still going ahead, helped along by far right politicians like George Christensen in Mackay. I feel for Mackay. I lived there most of my life and watched it grown from a happy agriculture town into a mining service town with property prices ( and rent ) that doubled in a couple of years, and high wages to match. I left. Then the coal prices took a dive, as expected, and suddenly Mackay has big problems with unemployment, crime, drug use, and people who cant afford to pay the mortgage on their overpriced house. The best solution the local politician has is to push for another mine! No vision and no idea. Its like a drug user, instead of getting off the habit, they look for the next hit. I'm not against coal mining. I support its use for steel production and to power existing power stations until they are replaced with cleaner technologies. In fact, my income depends on mining service businesses who use my software. But I dont support opening new mines, when the existing coal mines are already struggling to find demand for their coal at a profitable price. I do think the politicians need to accept the down turn in coal for power generation is with us for good, and to migrate business and industry to other forms of income. The boom has bust, you can cry about it or move on. Glenn The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, the second best time is right now. JAQ |
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| flc1 Senior Member  Joined: 20/11/2011 Location: New ZealandPosts: 242 |
yep, corrupt politicians feathering their own nests and large companys blinded by greed are whats slowing the shift to eco energy,,,what was it that indian chief said long ago?..... when the last tree is gone and the last fish is caught and the last stream is polluted....what are you left with? can't eat money. |
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| Georgen Guru Joined: 13/09/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 462 |
For me renewables are not yet capable to consistently generate power 24-7 except for hydro. Strangely new hydro projects get the same cold shoulder as coal ones. When Sun doesn't shine, wind doesn't blow and we do not have enough molten salt power storage systems, we have to accept coal as thing to stay until we decide to go nuclear or have enough renewable power systems to provide power as coal does. Read few articles about Thorium power stations where you have to fight to continue reaction. Any fault and Thorium nuclear power station stops, unlike to current systems that runaway if controls fail. Not sure if what I read is fair-dinkum, as there is lots of misinformation on the net. George |
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| Gizmo Admin Group Joined: 05/06/2004 Location: AustraliaPosts: 5078 |
Why not just add more molten salt storage units? The "renewables cant provide base load" myth passed around by politicians is getting old. Its just false, and you can judge the politican who quotes is as either ignorant or a liar. Energy generated by solar and wind can be stored in molten salt, its done now at solar farms in Spain. It can also be stored as hydro, where water is pumped up during the day and used at night, as done in the UK. This is not difficult engineering, it just needs to be implemented. Building a dam near the coast and using sea water as the energy medium. We also have hot rock as another form of energy production can that can run 24/7. Hot rock trials were very successful, then quietly put on the back burner. I like thorium, its got some big advantages over uranium, and has been tested with great results, then also put on the back burner. Fact is we have a abundance of alternative technologies to fossil fuels for our energy production, but a lack of strong government. The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago, the second best time is right now. JAQ |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
IMHO coal - that is mining in general - does not supply many jobs. In aus it provides about 2-3 % of jobs only. Often the labour is imported as well. All, of course, with a very favourable tax treatment, diesel subsidy.. the intent being that the companies will develop infrastructure. Just don't ask Rio to share road or rail lines. Try getting work from them ? You are lucky to get a robotic acknowledgement. To be fair, it is said that an advertisement for a mine truck driving job attracted 27,000 applications. But the three biggest mining companies are a much larger fraction of the ASX200, I think it is roughly 20%. And they, in turn, are 80% owned by english/european shareholders (including BHP-Billiton). The resources involved, constitute strategic energy supply to the UK - so no doubt the Crown and GCHQ also has involvement. Meanwhile is aus, a month or so ago SEEK had 165,000 job adverts. There were 300 actual net new jobs for the month, with approx 16000 part time positions replacing the same number of full timers. However there are approx 700,000 job seekers - who (thanks Mr Abetz) have to apply for 20 jobs/month - making 14 million job applications/month. Clever eh ? Innovative, even. Personally I am "carbo-keynesian" - I think we should burn coal, to create the infrastructure of renewables, while we still have the chance. And gee, if the worlds navies used fluidised coal instead of oil, the UK would have its own supply, and half the oil wars would vanish...At least, I thought that until a while ago, it is probably past that now. |
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| Phil23 Guru Joined: 27/03/2016 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1664 |
Exactly my thoughts. Thermal solar parks seem to be a way better option than PV panel based installations. And on a tangent, the number of ESE & WSW panel orientations I see on roofs here is a total eyeroll. Cheers. |
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| isochronic Guru Joined: 21/01/2012 Location: AustraliaPosts: 689 |
Here's a thought : make the export price of coal, payable in solar renewables instead of petrodollars. So, say, a one-time x kW-hours worth of coal should be payable as an ongoing y solar cell wattage. So say 10 KW-hours - about $2.50 at aus domestic rates - should give an on-going watt of PV. Over a decade or so that is a reasonable amount of energy back. So say an indian company exporting coal, would have to buy PV's from china in bulk. That would put excess solar on the market, pushing the price way down.. The thing wrong is that there is no export price paid at the moment - resources are basically given away free to the companies that extract them. A bit mind boggling - a million tons per day (sic) of iron ore, hauled by taxpayer subsidised diesel, returning as price-dumped steel while the steelworks go broke. As they say, go figure that one out. |
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| yahoo2 Guru Joined: 05/04/2011 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1166 |
I have been watching the industry very closely for the last couple of years, here is what I think has changed since Christmas. DISTRIBUTED POWER. The rooftop solar in the community has got people thinking about distributed power generation at a local and regional level. So communities are coming around to the idea of excess power traded locally, maybe regional Co-op's. There are people talking about using spare renewable capacity to store energy as pumped hydro, cracked fuels, etc, so an area that has 200% of the renewable capacity they need can store energy for a couple of hours and get over that early evening hump when the evening meal is cooked. CENTRALIZED POWER. Any big project that is offering centralized power generation is not going to be able easily to compete due to the losses and costs of pushing the electricity over a large network. Large generators will need to be linked closely with a large power user with only their excess going into the surrounding network. SOLAR FARMS. Utilities have changed their narrative in the last month. It has gone from "not possible for a host of feeble reasons" to "we could do it overnight if the incentives were in our favour". The fact that Dubai has just signed a long term solar farm contract at $30mwH while the local utilities are saying that $80mwH is not possible is showing some massive cracks in our regulatory system. BATTERIES. I count 12 battery suppliers in the last month that have put their hand up to say they will be in the Australian market offering a product very soon. This is a BIG problem for electricity retailers. if there is no incentive for cashed up battery owners to stay with the grid, they will disconnect. I coined the phrase "death spiral" several years ago to indicate what the result of even a 5% disconnection will be. Retailers and battery suppliers need to work together to build packages that get households and businesses to run their batteries as hybrid systems and stay with the grid. OLD GENERATORS. More than 70% of the existing generators in Aust are due for replacement or rebuilding NOW. The Utility companies big hope is that delaying will force a mini power crisis, the govt will panic and the taxpayer will fund a refurbishment of the existing centralized system  yay!. This tactic works a treat when the govt is cashed up, at the moment that is not the case, that is why WA and SA have looked very hard at the books and are saying NO!  the result is companies like Western Power are rapidly changing their rhetoric.
POLITICS. One of the mistakes I made in the past was assuming that our "leaders" actually lead, in most cases politics and legislation is the last thing to move. When I see a major political party change their position, I know the actual debate or fight has been over for many months or even years. Renewables are moving right now. LONG-TERM. extra low energy solutions are ultimately where we are headed, with the power we need supplied from a myriad of sources. The trouble is that most of those are still 30-50 years away from being a major part of our lives even if we sign the paperwork and make a start now. The existing solar and wind technologies are just a short term solution to fill the holes and give us some time, unless renewable energy gets corrupted with the same financial blight that we see now around fossil fuels, then we are truly stuffed. I guess that is my point here, this is not the end game, the next 20 years is only a temporary solution to a largely financial problem. The short term future (20 years) is most likely walking to work and the local market or riding a gopher/electric scooter, community bus or ride sharing a Tesla electric car rather that owning one. The immediate future is about which businesses and governments will stumble financially and take down the local communities with them. South Australia set its path 6 years ago, it will take a beating but most likely survive and thrive, Western Australia is doing it now (and very rapidly) and will learn from SA's mistakes. The country areas in the eastern states will most likely follow WA's lead. The eastern seaboard cities are fast running out of time and money. My feeling is the decisions we make, as a country about our energy future in the next 18 months, will have a huge bearing on the outcome. for your consideration, Yahoo I'm confused, no wait... maybe I'm not... |
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KarlJ Guru Joined: 19/05/2008 Location: AustraliaPosts: 1178 |
Mate in diffuse light - ie cloudy it doesnt make a scrap of difference which direction the panels face. knockdown is insignificant in the big picture ~22%. No-one yet to beat my daily production of 60kWh / 5kW of inverter cap across 5 orientations (including ESE) here in Perth. SW actually helps with peak demand quite nicely. Luck favours the well prepared |
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| Solar Mike Guru Joined: 08/02/2015 Location: New ZealandPosts: 1138 |
Coal companies might be going down the gurgler like Solid Energy here in NZ, but what doesnt make any sense is ASX-listed Bathurst Resources and the Talleys Group buying the assets, especially Talley's whom represent themselves as clean and green buying into coal, their spin doctors will be earning their keep. |
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